假日购物季收官乏力 美国12月零售销售意外停滞

Group 1 - U.S. retail sales growth unexpectedly stagnated in December 2025, indicating a weakening in consumer spending as the year-end approaches [1] - December retail sales showed a month-over-month growth of 0%, significantly below the previous value of 0.6% and market expectations of 0.4% [2] - Core retail sales also recorded a month-over-month growth of 0%, lower than the previous value of 0.5% and market expectations of 0.3% [2] Group 2 - Among 13 retail categories, 8 experienced declines, including sales drops in clothing and furniture stores, while automotive sales also decreased [1] - Sales at building material stores and sporting goods retailers saw an increase, indicating mixed performance across sectors [1] - The breadth of consumer spending is concerning, with signs that discretionary spending resilience is weakening, particularly among low-income Americans reliant on modest wage growth [2] Group 3 - The economic data released may strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to consider further interest rate cuts [3] - Prior to the data release, the U.S. Treasury market had already begun pricing in a "rate cut scenario," with the 10-year Treasury yield falling by 2 basis points to 4.18% [3] - The market currently estimates a 25% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times this year, compared to previous expectations of two cuts [3]