道富银行：美联储降息幅度或超预期，美元今年恐暴跌10%！

Core Viewpoint - The strategist from State Street Corp, Lee Ferridge, suggests that the next Federal Reserve chair may implement rate cuts exceeding market expectations, potentially leading to a 10% decline in the dollar this year [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Traders anticipate that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts around June, with at least two 0.25 percentage point cuts by the end of the year [1][5]. - Ferridge believes there is room for a third rate cut in 2026, influenced by pressure from Trump to lower borrowing costs [1][5]. - He states that while two cuts are a reasonable baseline, the Fed's policy is entering a period of greater uncertainty [1][5]. Group 2: Impact on the Dollar - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell approximately 8% last year, marking its worst annual performance since 2017, and has declined about 1.7% so far this year [6]. - Concerns over trade tensions, U.S. fiscal outlook, and Trump's pressure on the Fed have negatively impacted the dollar [7]. - Ferridge indicates that strong U.S. economic data may lead to a short-term rebound of the dollar by 2% to 3% [7]. Group 3: Hedging Dynamics - Ferridge notes that deeper rate cuts could reduce the cost of currency risk hedging for foreign investors, potentially increasing their hedging activities [1][5]. - The current hedging ratio is approximately 58%, down from over 78% before the Fed began raising rates in 2022 [3][7].