Should You Buy Vertex Before Feb. 12?

Core Viewpoint - Vertex Pharmaceuticals has underperformed the market with a less than 2% increase over the past year and is set to report earnings on February 12, raising questions about whether it is a good time for investors to buy the stock [1] Group 1: Recent Earnings Performance - In the third quarter earnings report on November 3, Vertex reported a revenue increase of 11% year over year, reaching $3.08 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) rose by only 4.7% to $4.20 due to increased research and development expenses [2] - The market reacted negatively to the earnings report, with the stock dropping over 1% on the announcement day and continuing to decline by more than 3% in the following days, primarily due to disappointing sales of newer therapies [2] Group 2: Product Portfolio and Sales - Vertex has five cystic fibrosis (CF) therapies, with Trikafta being the largest revenue generator, bringing in over $7.7 billion in revenue through the first nine months of 2025 and having patent protection until 2037 [3] - Alyftrek, recently approved by the FDA in December 2024, is viewed as a potential successor to Trikafta, but its sales of $247 million in the third quarter fell short of analysts' expectations [4] - The launch of the non-opioid pain therapy Journavx has also been underwhelming, with sales of $33 million in the quarter, disappointing some analysts [5] Group 3: Future Expectations - For the full year 2025, Vertex is forecasting revenue between $11.9 billion and $12 billion, requiring fourth-quarter revenue of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion to meet this target [6] - Analysts predict quarterly revenue of $3.17 billion, representing an 8.9% year-over-year increase, and an EPS of $5.07, a 27.4% rise compared to the same period last year [6]