美国第四季度劳动力成本增速放缓

Core Insights - The U.S. labor cost growth unexpectedly slowed in Q4, marking the smallest annual increase in four and a half years due to softening labor demand [1][3] Labor Cost Index - The Employment Cost Index (ECI), a comprehensive measure of labor costs, rose by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, down from 0.8% in Q3, and below economists' expectations of 0.8% growth [1][3] - Year-on-year, labor costs increased by 3.4% as of December, the smallest increase since Q2 2021, compared to a 3.5% increase as of September [1][3] Labor Market Conditions - The weak performance of the labor market is suppressing wage growth, with the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals falling to 0.87 in December from 0.89 in November, down from approximately 1.08 a year ago [1][3] Wage Growth - Wages and salaries, which constitute a major part of labor costs, increased by 0.7% in Q4, down from 0.8% in Q3, and year-on-year, they rose by 3.3%, lower than the 3.5% increase as of September [2][5] - After adjusting for inflation, overall real wages increased by 0.7% over the 12 months ending in December, compared to a 0.6% increase in Q3 [2][5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Despite easing wage pressures, import tariffs have driven up commodity prices, keeping inflation elevated [4] - Economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in the first half of the year, with the benchmark rate currently set between 3.50% and 3.75% [5]