新华社观察：孟加拉国议会选举在即，民族主义党回归？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming national parliamentary elections in Bangladesh on February 12 are significant as they follow Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation due to nationwide protests, with the nationalist party led by Tarique Rahman likely to win according to polls [1] Group 1: Political Landscape - The nationalist party is projected to receive about 70% support from voters, with expectations of winning more than two-thirds of the seats [3] - Tarique Rahman, a key figure in the nationalist party, has returned from exile and is seen as a unifying force for the party, enhancing its electoral prospects [3][4] - The nationalist party emphasizes economic growth, job creation, and governance reform, promising a gradual approach to economic recovery if elected [4] Group 2: Other Political Parties - The Islamic Party, in alliance with the National Citizens Party, has a support rate of 31% and is working to strengthen its grassroots organization [6] - The Islamic Party's campaign includes 26 priority issues aimed at political reform and anti-corruption, gaining traction among the youth [6][7] - However, the Islamic Party faces challenges in attracting a broader voter base due to its religiously-based policies and internal coalition disputes [7] Group 3: Election Dynamics - Two key variables are expected to influence the election outcome: the potential for violence and external interference [9][10] - The temporary government's ability to manage violence is crucial, as high levels of conflict could threaten voting security and legitimacy [9] - External influences, particularly from the U.S. and India, may sway young voters towards non-traditional parties, complicating the electoral landscape [10][11]