Will Lower Patient Days Affect Tenet Healthcare's Q4 Earnings?

Core Insights - Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 11, 2026, with earnings estimated at $4.08 per share and revenues of $5.45 billion [1] Financial Performance Estimates - The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has increased by $0.03 over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year increase of 18.6% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year growth of 7.5% [2] - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $21.26 billion, reflecting a 2.9% year-over-year rise, while the earnings per share estimate is $16.15, indicating a 35.9% increase year-over-year [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for THC, as it has an Earnings ESP of +2.72% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4] Q4 Results Influencing Factors - THC is expected to report Q4 EPS of $4.08, up 18.6% year-over-year, with revenues projected to rise by 7.5% [7] - Hospital patient days and average length of stay are projected to decline sharply in Q4 [7] - The Ambulatory Care segment is anticipated to experience strong growth, with operating revenues expected to rise [7] - Adjusted patient admissions in total hospital operations are estimated to grow by 3.9% year-over-year, while adjusted patient admissions on the same hospital basis indicate a 2.7% increase [8] Ambulatory Care Segment Performance - The Ambulatory Care business is likely to benefit from improved patient volumes, new service line growth, and acquisitions, with operating revenues expected to grow by 8.4% year-over-year [9] - The consensus estimate for adjusted EBITDA from Ambulatory Care operations suggests a 9% year-over-year growth [9] Hospital Operations and Services - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hospital Operations and Services revenues for Q4 is $4.07 billion, indicating a 6.9% increase from the previous year [10] - The consensus mark for net patient revenues per adjusted admission signals a 4.5% year-over-year increase [10] Challenges and Cost Considerations - Despite expected growth, total hospital patient days are projected to decrease by 6.5% year-over-year, and the average length of stay is expected to decline by 8.8% [11][12] - Increased utilization is anticipated to lead to higher costs in Q4, making an earnings beat uncertain [12] Industry Comparisons - Other companies in the medical sector, such as HCA Healthcare, Ensign Group, and Encompass Health, have reported their Q4 results, with varying degrees of performance against consensus estimates [13][14][15]