美联储理事沃勒：加密市场乐观情绪正在消退 机构去杠杆与不确定性加剧波动

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in the cryptocurrency market has diminished the optimism that followed Trump's election, as highlighted by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who attributes the volatility to regulatory uncertainties and risk management adjustments by major financial institutions [1] Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility, with Bitcoin dropping over 40% from its October peak, reaching a low of $60,033, the lowest since October 2024, and triggering the largest volatility spike since the FTX collapse in 2022 [1] - Institutional involvement, including hedge funds and ETFs, indicates that the cryptocurrency market is no longer solely retail-driven, leading to increased policy attention [1] - The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains in negative territory, reflecting traders' defensive positioning against downside risks, and the open interest has decreased by about 50% from its peak, indicating a lack of strong consensus in the recent rebound [1] Group 2: Options Market Sentiment - The options market shows a cautious stance, with Bitcoin implied volatility dropping from approximately 83% to around 60%, indicating reduced expectations for short-term volatility, while the skew remains tilted towards put options, reflecting high demand for downside protection [2] - The reduction in leverage is helping to stabilize prices but also suggests that many investors are choosing to take profits or cut losses at lower levels, leading to a more cautious market environment [2] - Macro uncertainties, including political changes in Japan and fluctuations in precious metal prices, are contributing to a prevailing cautious sentiment, with analysts suggesting that the market is more likely to enter a phase of consolidation rather than a rapid upward reversal [2]