道明证券称外资对美债需求稳健 “抛售美国”更多是叙事而非现实

Core Viewpoint - Foreign buyers have increased their participation in U.S. medium- to long-term Treasury auctions, alleviating market concerns about the loss of safe-haven status and the potential withdrawal of overseas funds due to large fiscal deficits [1][5]. Group 1: Foreign Participation in Treasury Auctions - In January, foreign and international accounts accounted for approximately 19% of allocations in U.S. Treasury auctions, marking the highest level in nearly three years [1][5]. - This participation rate had previously peaked at nearly 25% in early 2022 but fell to below 10% by November 2024 [1][5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Analysts from TD Securities suggest that the narrative of a "sell-off of America" is more of a story than reality, as data indicates foreign investors have been increasing their holdings [3][8]. - After a sell-off of $53 billion in U.S. Treasuries following tariff announcements in April 2025, foreign investors subsequently increased their holdings by $354 billion by November [8]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Investment Decisions - The increase in foreign participation in Treasury auctions during November and December indicates that the widening term premium—additional yield offered by 10-year Treasuries compared to shorter-term bonds—has been a driving factor [8]. - The lack of alternative assets may be compelling investors to set aside concerns temporarily, with a weaker dollar suggesting that foreign investors are continuing to accumulate dollar-denominated assets while hedging against currency risks [10].