美联储官员：货币政策处良好位置，利率或相当长时间内维持不变

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy is considered to be in a good position, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates for an extended period [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, following three consecutive rate cuts last autumn [2]. - The current monetary policy is viewed as suitable for a wait-and-see approach, allowing for assessment of recent data before making further adjustments [2]. - The inflation rate is expected to remain close to 3% this year, similar to the previous two years, while the long-term inflation target is set at 2% [2]. Inflation and Costs - There is a need for more decisive evidence that price levels are consistently declining before making any adjustments to interest rates [2]. - Concerns about tariffs impacting prices have been raised, with some companies reporting increased costs due to tariff hikes, leading to price increases for consumers [5]. - Rising electricity prices and healthcare costs are also contributing to overall cost pressures [5]. Employment Market - The labor market appears to be stabilizing, with the unemployment rate at 4.4%, similar to levels from September of the previous year [7]. - Initial jobless claims remain low, although some companies have announced layoffs [7]. - Economic growth is expected to accelerate this year due to previous rate cuts and fiscal support, potentially leading to a stronger labor market and a further decrease in the unemployment rate [7]. Banking System and Central Bank Independence - A robust banking system is crucial for the economy and effective transmission of monetary policy [8]. - The Federal Reserve can ensure the banking system remains a key pillar of economic growth through tailored regulatory adjustments [8]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have been highlighted, particularly in light of external pressures for significant rate cuts, with historical evidence suggesting that countries with weaker central bank independence face higher inflation [8].