2025年全国社会物流总额同比增长5.1%

Core Viewpoint - The logistics sector in China is projected to maintain stable growth, with a total social logistics volume of 368.2 trillion yuan by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% at comparable prices, indicating strong support for the real economy [1] Group 1: Overall Logistics Growth - The total social logistics volume is expected to grow steadily across all four quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of 5.7%, 5.5%, 5.2%, and 5.0% respectively [1] - The average annual growth rate of social logistics during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected at 5.7%, outpacing GDP growth, highlighting logistics' strong role in driving the real economy [1] Group 2: Industrial Logistics - The logistics volume for industrial products is anticipated to grow by 5.3% in 2025, contributing 82% to the overall growth of social logistics, reinforcing its core pillar status [2] - The demand for logistics in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing is expected to exceed 9%, indicating a shift towards high-end and intelligent logistics [2] Group 3: Consumer Logistics - Logistics for units and residents is projected to grow by 5.1% in 2025, supported by policies enhancing urban-rural consumption collaboration, with rural retail sales increasing by 4.1% [2] - Online retail of physical goods is expected to grow by 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales, reflecting the stable release of consumption logistics demand [2] Group 4: International Logistics - The logistics volume for imports is expected to grow by 0.5% in 2025, with a notable increase to 8.5% in December, indicating a gradual recovery in international logistics [2] Group 5: New Quality Productivity - The logistics volume for industrial robots is projected to grow by 28%, while logistics for new energy vehicles is expected to increase by 25.1%, driven by the rapid development of new quality industries [3] - The logistics volume for recycled resources is expected to grow by 13.2%, with a consistent high growth rate throughout the year, indicating a shift towards low-carbon and efficient logistics [3] Group 6: Logistics Costs and Efficiency - The total logistics cost is projected to reach 19.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and the ratio of logistics costs to GDP is expected to drop to 13.9%, the lowest in history [3] - The logistics industry is expected to generate total revenue of 14.3 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.1%, aligning with logistics demand growth [4] Group 7: Policy and Market Environment - Various departments are implementing supportive policies to facilitate the free flow and efficient allocation of logistics resources across the country, contributing to a decrease in management costs [4] - The logistics industry is expected to maintain a good level of prosperity, with an average logistics industry prosperity index of 50.8% in 2025, indicating stable operational conditions [4] Group 8: Future Outlook - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and strong economic resilience, with ongoing efforts to lower logistics costs and enhance service quality [5] - Continuous implementation of policies aimed at reducing logistics costs and improving infrastructure is essential for the high-quality development of logistics in coordination with the macro economy [5]