中金：港股回调到位了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed since the beginning of 2026, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has shown the weakest performance among core assets [1][49]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since mid-January, the A-share market began to cool down, leading to increased attention on Hong Kong stocks, which initially saw a rise due to new consumption, metals, and internet sectors [3][51]. - However, concerns over global precious metals volatility and hawkish sentiments regarding the Federal Reserve have placed significant pressure on Hong Kong stocks, resulting in a 3% decline in the Hang Seng Index and a 6.5% drop in the Hang Seng Tech Index since February [3][51]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen nearly 20% from its peak in October, reaching a new low since July of the previous year [3][51]. Group 2: Reasons for Underperformance - The underperformance of Hong Kong stocks is attributed to tightening liquidity concerns, structural issues, and weak macroeconomic fundamentals [3][51]. - The market is worried about tightening liquidity due to the appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve chairman, which has negatively impacted liquidity-sensitive assets like the Hang Seng Tech Index [5][57]. - The reassessment of AI capital expenditure narratives has also negatively affected tech stocks, with major companies like Tencent experiencing significant declines due to concerns over missed opportunities in the AI sector [9][57]. - Weak fundamentals are evident as the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, below market expectations, indicating a need for sustained policy support for recovery [10][58]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks is contingent on credit cycles, industry trends, and liquidity, with limited index space expected due to a weakening credit cycle [13][61]. - If fiscal policies only provide a floor without aggressive stimulus, the credit cycle is likely to weaken further, limiting index performance [14][63]. - The structural strength of the market will depend on the performance of key sectors such as technology and new consumption, which are crucial for potential recovery [19][67]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on sectors with unique structural advantages, such as dividends, technology, and new consumption, which are less prevalent in A-shares [27][80]. - The current recommendation is to prioritize sectors like essential retail, technology hardware, and new consumption, which have shown strong fundamentals and moderate trading activity [91][92].