德国负电价背景下的电力安全治理范式

Core Viewpoint - Negative electricity prices in Germany have evolved from an anomaly to a structural feature in the context of high renewable energy integration, with significant implications for market mechanisms and energy transition [1][2]. Group 1: Negative Electricity Prices - In 2023, Germany experienced negative electricity prices for a total of 301 hours, which is projected to increase to 459 hours in 2024 and nearly 575 hours by the end of 2025 [1]. - The lowest recorded negative price was approximately -250 euros per megawatt-hour on May 11, 2025 [1]. - Negative prices are a result of the real-time balancing nature of electricity and the priority access granted to renewable energy sources, leading to supply exceeding demand during low-load periods [3]. Group 2: Support and Criticism of Negative Prices - Proponents argue that negative prices serve as an effective market signal, reflecting the scarcity of system flexibility and incentivizing the development of storage and demand response resources [4]. - Critics highlight that negative prices increase operational costs for the electricity system and can undermine the viability of traditional power plants, which still incur fixed costs during negative price periods [4]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Considerations - The German government maintains the existence of negative prices for several reasons: they are seen as a necessary mechanism for market clearing, a natural consequence of transitioning to a high renewable energy supply, and a stimulus for technological innovation [4]. - The introduction of stricter policies, such as the "4-hour rule" and its upcoming replacement with a "3-hour rule," aims to encourage renewable energy sources to limit output during negative price periods [6]. Group 4: Demand-Side Management - Germany's demand-side management is transitioning from passive response to active collaboration, with policies incentivizing flexible resources and investments in decarbonization and energy efficiency [7][8]. - The Power-to-Heat innovation is highlighted as a key technology that allows for the conversion of excess renewable energy into heat, thus creating a more flexible energy resource [8]. Group 5: Reliability and Safety Mechanisms - Germany has established a robust re-dispatch mechanism to ensure physical safety in the electricity system, decoupling economic signals from physical reliability [10]. - The country utilizes cross-border electricity trading to alleviate domestic grid pressure during negative price periods, enhancing system stability [11]. - The Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) metric is employed to set proactive safety boundaries for the system, ensuring sufficient backup capacity during extreme price fluctuations [12]. Group 6: Conclusion on System Resilience - The German experience illustrates that negative prices and electricity system safety are not mutually exclusive but can be harmonized through institutional innovation [14]. - The integration of market mechanisms into the physical safety architecture of the electricity system provides a model for managing market volatility while ensuring stable power supply in a high renewable energy context [14].