中金：港股市场指数空间受限 坚守AI与周期主线 短期关注零售、消费与科技硬件

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of 2026, the Hong Kong stock market has underperformed, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has been the worst performer among core assets [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has shown a decline of 3% since February, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped by 6.5%, reaching a new low since July of the previous year, with a nearly 20% pullback from its October peak [2][3]. - The A-share market experienced a strong start with 17 consecutive days of gains after New Year's, contrasting with the weaker performance of the Hong Kong market [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Concerns over tightening liquidity and a weak macroeconomic environment have contributed to the recent pullback in the Hong Kong market [3][13]. - The market's performance is influenced by three dimensions: the credit cycle, industry trends, and liquidity, which amplify volatility [13][21]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on sectors aligned with credit expansion, particularly in AI technology and cyclical industries, while also considering essential retail and new consumption sectors for short-term opportunities [39][45]. - The report suggests that the overall market index has limited upside potential, with a benchmark range of 28,000 to 29,000 points for the Hang Seng Index [13][14]. Sector Analysis - The report highlights that the technology sector, particularly AI, and new consumption are critical for supporting the Hong Kong market's valuation elasticity [19][30]. - The performance of the Hong Kong market is closely tied to external liquidity conditions, with significant sensitivity to U.S. Federal Reserve policies [21][27]. Future Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong market will depend on the evolution of the credit cycle, industry trends, and liquidity conditions, which will dictate the market's ability to recover [13][14]. - The report anticipates a potential earnings growth of 3-4% for the Hong Kong market, driven by sentiment recovery in key sectors [27][28].