Retail Sales Stall as Dow Sets Record, S&P Falls | The Close 2/10/2026

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is down by 0.1% but remains near record highs, with defensive sectors gaining traction [2] - The ten-year Treasury yield has decreased by almost six basis points to 4.14%, influenced by weak retail sales data, which strengthens the case for potential Fed rate cuts [3][5] - Bitcoin has experienced volatility, currently trading just below $69,000 after reaching $60,000 last week [4] Economic Indicators - December retail sales showed stagnation, with eight out of thirteen retail categories reporting declines, indicating potential weakness in consumer spending [5][20] - The upcoming January jobs report is anticipated to provide further insights into the labor market, with a consensus estimate of 65,000 new jobs, although a whisper number suggests only 40,000 [26][28] Company Insights - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expressed confidence in the U.S. economy, suggesting that the recent drop in software stocks may have been overdone [6][7] - Quest Diagnostics reported a record high in shares following strong earnings, raising its dividend and issuing a higher-than-expected adjusted EPS forecast for 2026 [30][31] - The consumer health segment of Quest Diagnostics is projected to grow over 20% this year, driven by increased consumer interest in preventive health measures [36][37] Sector Performance - Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, have outperformed large-cap stocks, with a 21% rally over the past six months compared to a 9% gain for the S&P 500 [9][10] - The software sector has seen a significant valuation rerating of about 40% recently, despite facing scrutiny and volatility [15][19] - The healthcare sector, particularly in diagnostics and chronic disease management, is experiencing growth due to rising rates of chronic conditions and advancements in testing technologies [32][44] Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is transitioning from labor force growth to productivity-led growth, with generative AI adoption contributing to a productivity growth rate of 2% over the past few years, surpassing pre-COVID levels [25][98] - CVS is facing challenges due to flat Medicare Advantage rates, which could impact its growth trajectory, particularly as it targets mid-teens EPS growth through 2028 [52][54] - Becton Dickinson's recent merger with Waters aims to position the company as a leader in the life sciences space, focusing on AI and robotics to enhance healthcare delivery [67][68]