Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-11 01:31Market Performance - The corn May contract closed at 2293 CNY/ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%, indicating limited overall volatility. Recent trading volume and open interest are at low levels, with a noticeable decrease in market participation ahead of the holiday, maintaining a range-bound price pattern [4][14]. - Downstream demand shows that deep processing enterprises are issuing notices to halt or reduce purchases, with pre-holiday stockpiling largely completed. Feed enterprises are primarily executing previous contracts, showing weak purchasing intentions [4][14]. Market Focus & Summary - Post-holiday, the main divergence between bulls and bears centers on whether the northeastern grain will see concentrated supply after temperatures rise, and the real demand elasticity of corporate inventories in this context. It is expected that the corn March contract will maintain a range of 2250–2275 CNY/ton before the holiday, with directional choices pending further verification of supply release and demand recovery after the holiday [5][15]. - For soybean meal, the USDA report continues its cautious stance without adjusting the U.S. soybean balance sheet, which the market did not find surprising. The forecast for Brazil's new crop production has been raised to 180 million tons, aligning with market expectations. The report's overall impact is neutral, with overnight CBOT soybeans benefiting from a rebound in U.S. soybean oil [5][15]. - In South America, rainfall forecasts still show a "north wet, south dry" distribution, leading to a market struggle between the realization of Brazil's bumper harvest and potential production cuts in Argentina. The former may constrain the rebound potential of U.S. prices [5][15]. - The rise in U.S. soybeans is expected to support the valuation of domestic soybean meal, while external market volatility due to weather risks in Argentina during the Spring Festival may limit the downside momentum for soybean meal ahead of the holiday [5][15]. Egg Market - As the Spring Festival approaches, spot prices across various channels have paused. The March contract's discount reflects the market's anticipation of high inventory and weak seasonal demand post-holiday. Recent declines in spot prices indicate that the basis has gradually converged through the drop in spot prices. The current price of the March contract largely reflects support near the cost line, with limited further downside potential unless inventory pressure exceeds expectations or demand recovery is particularly slow [7][17]. Pork Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas is approximately 11.54 CNY/kg. Prices have come under pressure again after a seasonal rebound before the Spring Festival. Pre-holiday, breeding enterprises are concentrating on sales, leading to significant supply pressure, while consumer demand has not met expectations. Continuous price declines have resulted in strong resistance from some breeding enterprises, but the market is oversupplied, weakening the bargaining power of breeders [9][19]. - In February, the planned slaughter volume from sample enterprises is 22.92 million heads, a decrease of 17.73% compared to January's actual completion. Due to fewer sales days in February, the average daily increase is 21.44% on a month-on-month basis. Despite potential fluctuations as the Spring Festival approaches, the futures market's near-term contracts have adequately priced in expectations for price declines [9][19].