春节错月叠加能源价格下行 1月CPI同比涨幅回落

Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a year-on-year decline in January 2026, primarily due to the impact of the Spring Festival timing and changes in international oil prices [1] Group 1: CPI Analysis - The year-on-year increase in CPI has decreased due to two main reasons: the high base effect from last year's Spring Festival and changes in food and service prices [1] - Food prices decreased by 0.7%, contributing approximately 0.11 percentage points to the decline in CPI year-on-year, while last month, food prices had a positive impact of about 0.21 percentage points [1] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 6.9%, but the growth rate fell by 11.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, reducing its positive impact on CPI by approximately 0.27 percentage points [1] - Fresh fruit prices rose by 3.2%, with a decrease in growth rate of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Pork and egg prices fell by 13.7% and 10.6%, respectively [1] - Service prices increased by 0.1%, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to the CPI year-on-year increase, but this was a reduction of approximately 0.20 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The prices of airline tickets, travel agency fees, and housekeeping services decreased by 14.3%, 7.7%, and 3.5%, respectively, collectively impacting CPI by approximately -0.16 percentage points [1] Group 2: Energy Price Impact - Energy prices fell by 5.0% in January, contributing approximately 0.34 percentage points to the decline in CPI year-on-year, with this downward impact increasing by about 0.06 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Gasoline prices decreased by 11.4%, with the decline rate expanding by 3.0 percentage points from the previous month [1]