【市场聚焦】棕榈油：马来局1月报告

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the first decline in inventory after ten consecutive months of increase, with a larger-than-expected reduction in inventory, raising market interest in the timing and extent of this year's inventory turning point [3][17]. Supply Side - In January, production decreased by 13.8% to 1.577 million tons, aligning with seasonal reduction patterns, and remains relatively high compared to historical data, only surpassed by 2019, 2018, and 2013 [4][19]. - The labor force increased by approximately 0.8 thousand to 288 thousand in December, indicating no immediate labor shortages [20]. - Weather conditions are typical for the rainy season, with significant rainfall recorded, but localized variations exist, suggesting no immediate concerns regarding dry conditions [20]. Demand Side - Exports increased by 11.4% to 1.484 million tons in January, exceeding market expectations, although not as high as some shipping companies' forecasts [8][27]. - Domestic consumption rose to 361 thousand tons, moving out of the previous range of 280-320 thousand tons, contributing to the unexpected decline in inventory [8][27]. Summary - Inventory decreased by 7.7% to 2.815 million tons, marking the first decline after ten months of increases, with the current level still considered high historically [11][31]. - The combination of unexpected production levels, favorable export conditions, and rising domestic consumption led to a significant drop in inventory, which was below market expectations [11][31]. - February is expected to see a further decline in inventory, supported by export demand, although high previous inventory levels may limit short-term selling pressure [11][31].