石油焦：偏强震荡呈现结构性分化

Core Viewpoint - The petroleum coke market in China is expected to experience strong fluctuations in 2026, with a structural differentiation in supply and demand, particularly in the low-sulfur coke segment, which is likely to remain tight [1] Group 1: Market Performance in 2025 - In 2025, the petroleum coke market exhibited a significant upward trend, with the price rising from 1615 RMB/ton on January 1 to 2598.25 RMB/ton by December 31, marking an annual increase of 60.88% [2] - The price surge was driven by supply constraints and increased downstream stocking demand, particularly before the Spring Festival, leading to a tight supply situation [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, prices fluctuated due to an influx of imported petroleum coke and a cautious demand outlook from downstream sectors [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Analysts predict a slowdown in the growth of new petroleum coke production capacity in 2026, with limited supply increases expected [5] - The peak period for delayed coking capacity expansion ended in 2022, and the new cycle from 2026 to 2030 will see a significant reduction in the pace of capacity growth [5] - New capacity additions are primarily focused on refinery upgrades, with a projected total of 9.5 million tons of new delayed coking capacity expected from 2026 to 2030, mainly in East China [5] Group 3: Demand Trends - The demand for petroleum coke is expected to remain strong, driven by stable needs in the aluminum carbon industry and increasing orders for negative electrode materials in energy storage and power applications [6] - The calcination process remains the most critical intermediary for petroleum coke, with significant growth anticipated in the calcined coke sector from 2026 to 2027 [6] - The negative electrode materials market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with a production volume of approximately 2.95 million tons in 2025 and a utilization rate of 77.6% [6][7] Group 4: Price Outlook - The price of low-sulfur coke is expected to remain high due to tight supply, while medium-sulfur coke will rely on traditional industrial demand, and high-sulfur coke prices are likely to stay low due to fuel substitution effects [7] - Overall, the petroleum coke prices in 2026 are anticipated to show a strong fluctuating trend, with further structural differentiation expected [7]