五矿信托：2026年宏观经济与大类资产配置展望

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a significant restructuring of macroeconomic policies, focusing on long-term stability and structural adjustments rather than merely smoothing short-term fluctuations. The year marks a transition towards quality-driven growth and a proactive transformation of the economy [1][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - Fiscal policy will maintain a high intensity, with a deficit rate expected to remain between 4.0% and 4.2%, translating to approximately 5.9 trillion yuan in deficit. This aims to boost effective demand and facilitate the transition between old and new growth drivers [6][7]. - Monetary policy is set to shift towards "moderate easing," with expectations of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the first quarter and interest rate reductions in the second quarter, aimed at stimulating credit demand and supporting fiscal efforts [10][12]. Group 2: Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment is projected to recover, with growth rates expected to rise to 3.0%-3.5%. Infrastructure investment will be the main driver, anticipated to grow by around 5.5%, supported by fiscal measures [13][15]. - Manufacturing investment is expected to remain resilient, with a growth rate of about 5.0%, as companies shift focus from expansion to upgrading capabilities, aided by a structural shift towards high-value intermediate and capital goods [15]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - Consumer spending is expected to transition from stimulus-driven growth to normalized growth, with retail sales growth projected at 4.0%-4.5%. Durable goods consumption will stabilize, while service consumption is anticipated to become the largest incremental growth area, driven by policy support [17]. Group 4: External Trade and Balance - China's export structure is evolving from "end-product manufacturing" to "industrial base," enhancing export resilience. The export growth rate is expected to remain around 5.5%, supported by a shift towards high-value products [21][24]. - The focus on deepening cooperation with emerging markets will facilitate a transition from simple product exports to a model of "technology + capacity," which is expected to provide a solid foundation for maintaining export growth [24].