恐慌抛售过后，“鲸鱼”逢低扫货吹响比特币触底反弹号角

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is currently hovering around $69,000, with analysts suggesting it may be nearing a bottom after recent sell-offs, potentially setting the stage for a short-term rebound and a more constructive upward trajectory in the future [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market sell-off pressures are attributed to speculative activities and the unwinding of leveraged positions, which may lay the groundwork for a short-term recovery in Bitcoin prices [1][7]. - The "Bitcoin whales," or wallets holding over 1,000 BTC, have started to accumulate Bitcoin again, with reports indicating an increase of approximately 53,000 BTC in a week, which could help stabilize prices [2][10]. - Despite the accumulation by whales, the overall demand remains narrow, raising questions about whether this behavior signifies a return of bullish sentiment or merely a damage control strategy [2][10]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Compass Point believe the cryptocurrency market is in a bottoming phase following a record level of panic selling, with realized losses reaching around $10 billion, the second-highest since June 2022 [2][3]. - Cantor Fitzgerald's analysts express confidence in a potential short-term rebound, suggesting that the recent sell-off has cleared out excess speculative positions, making the market cleaner for future price stability [8][9]. - Bernstein's analysts argue that the current bearish sentiment for Bitcoin is at its weakest historically, predicting a return to all-time highs, with a target price of $150,000 by year-end [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The short-term probability of a rebound in Bitcoin prices is increasing, but the medium-term trend requires significant new capital inflows to validate any upward movement [13][15]. - Factors such as the end of quantitative tightening, expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and potential capital rotation from other markets could provide liquidity support for Bitcoin [9][14]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while a short-term rebound is likely, the market is still in a verification phase, needing broader participation and consistent inflows from institutional investors to sustain any upward momentum [15].