长江有色：宏观助力及产业支撑镍价盘面秀红 11日镍价或上涨

Core Viewpoint - The nickel futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight London nickel prices rose by 0.8%, closing at $17,550 per ton, an increase of $140 per ton, with a trading volume of 7,547 lots [1] - The Shanghai nickel futures market opened lower but rebounded significantly, with the main contract closing at 136,500 yuan per ton, up 2,520 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.88% [1][2] - The LME nickel inventory reported 285,750 tons, an increase of 678 tons from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply remains tight due to policy disruptions in major producing countries like Indonesia and seasonal factors, leading to a marginal contraction in supply [3][4] - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly in new energy batteries and stainless steel, has stabilized as pre-holiday stockpiling has concluded, entering a traditional off-season [3][5] Group 3: Industry Chain Status - The upstream nickel ore prices remain high, providing rigid support to the industry chain [4] - Midstream nickel iron manufacturers are showing strong price support intentions, although refined nickel output has slightly increased, price elasticity remains limited due to high costs [5] - Downstream production schedules in the new energy and stainless steel sectors are slowing, with companies focusing on inventory digestion and cash flow stability, resulting in a subdued market transaction environment [5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - The nickel spot market is entering a pre-holiday quiet phase, with traders focused on settlement and only minimal essential transactions occurring [6] - Short-term nickel prices are expected to maintain a strong bias, supported by macroeconomic easing expectations and high costs, but seasonal demand decline and risk aversion may limit price increases [6] - A defensive strategy of "light positions, short-term focus" is recommended, emphasizing strict position control and short-term trading, while closely monitoring key variables such as dollar movements and Indonesian industrial policies [6]