Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao·2026-02-11 04:13Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted towards the substantial capital expenditure budgets set by major tech companies for 2026, which are significantly higher than expected, totaling approximately $650 billion, indicating a strong commitment to AI development despite concerns from investors about the aggressive spending plans [1][4]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Plans - Amazon is projected to have a capital expenditure of $200 billion in 2026, exceeding analyst expectations of $144.7 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of over 50% from $131 billion in 2025 [2][3]. - Alphabet (Google) anticipates capital expenditures between $175 billion and $185 billion for 2026, a significant increase from $91.4 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 91.5% to 102.4% [3]. - Meta plans to double its capital expenditure to between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026, compared to $72.2 billion in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 59.3% to 87% [3]. - Microsoft is expected to reach a capital expenditure of $105 billion for its fiscal year ending in June 2026, with a reported $37.5 billion in capital expenditures for the second fiscal quarter, marking a 66% year-over-year increase [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Strategy - The investment strategies of these companies are aligned, focusing on the strong demand for AI while addressing capacity constraints that require increased investment [4]. - Meta is prioritizing investments in computational infrastructure, with plans to build large-scale data centers to support AI models and ensure stable power supply [4]. - Alphabet aims to enhance its computational and cloud services capabilities, with approximately 60% of its 2026 capital expenditures allocated to servers and 40% to data centers and network equipment [5]. - Amazon's capital expenditures will primarily support its cloud business (AWS) to meet strong customer demand, emphasizing the ability to quickly deploy computing resources [6]. Group 3: Market Performance and Concerns - The cloud business is becoming a high-return investment area in the AI sector, with notable performances from major cloud service providers during the earnings season [7]. - Amazon's AWS sales reached $35.6 billion in Q4 2025, a 24% year-over-year increase, while Microsoft's cloud revenue grew 26% to $51.5 billion, and Alphabet's cloud revenue increased 48% to $17.7 billion [8]. - Despite the strong order backlog, which includes $240 billion for Google Cloud and $244 billion for AWS, there are concerns about the pressure on profitability and cash flow due to the need for continued capital investment [8][9]. Group 4: Financial Health and Investor Sentiment - Amazon's free cash flow has dropped significantly from $38.2 billion to $11.2 billion over the past year, with predictions of a negative free cash flow of $17 billion in 2026 [9]. - Alphabet is also facing challenges, with projections indicating a 58% and 80% drop in free cash flow per share for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively [9]. - Microsoft's aggressive capital expenditure plans have raised concerns among investors, leading to a 10% drop in its stock price following its earnings report, the largest single-day decline since March 2020 [9][10].