Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of three publicly traded bitcoin mining companies, favoring two companies linked to data center leasing while adopting a cautious stance on one focused on bitcoin exposure [1][2]. Group 1: Company Ratings and Price Targets - Cipher Mining (CIFR) and TeraWulf (WULF) received Overweight ratings with price targets set at $38 and $37, respectively [1]. - Shares of CIFR increased by 12.4% to $16.51, while WULF rose by 12.8% to $16.12 on the same day [1]. - Marathon Digital (MARA) was rated Underweight with a target price of $8, with shares slightly up to $8.28 [2]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The analyst views certain bitcoin mining sites as infrastructure assets rather than mere crypto investments, suggesting they are better suited for investors seeking steady cash flow [2][3]. - Once a mining company establishes a data center and secures a long-term lease with a reliable counterparty, the asset's value shifts towards infrastructure investors rather than traditional bitcoin investors [3]. Group 3: Valuation Comparisons - The analyst compared bitcoin mining facilities to data center real estate investment trusts (REITs) like Equinix (EQIX) and Digital Realty (DLR), which trade at over 20 times forward EBITDA, indicating a premium for scale and steady growth [3]. - Although data centers developed by bitcoin companies may not reach similar valuation levels due to limited growth potential, there is still potential for higher valuations than currently assigned by the market [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Cipher Mining - Cipher Mining is positioned as a key player, with the analyst suggesting its data centers could fit into a "REIT endgame," where they are valued for long-term, low-risk contracted cash flows [5]. - A scenario where Cipher shifts from self-mining to leasing space to large cloud customers could lead to predictable cash flows, diminishing the focus on bitcoin [6].
Cipher Mining and TeraWulf are buys, MARA a sell, as Morgan Stanley begins bitcoin miner coverage