首创期货：下游低价刚需备货，碳酸锂2605合约早盘盘中一度涨超5%

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate main contract opened strong, exceeding 144,500 yuan/ton with an increase of over 5%, driven by cost support and supply expectations [1] Supply Side - Overseas lithium ore prices have decreased, leading to a downward adjustment in cost support [1] - The resumption of production at the Zhangxiawo lithium mine has been delayed, and there are expectations of maintenance at lithium salt plants before and during the Spring Festival, narrowing supply expectations [1] - Exports of lithium carbonate from Chile to China have increased month-on-month, while the resumption of Brazilian lithium mines has somewhat alleviated production cuts [1] Demand Side - Downstream inventory levels are sufficient, and as the Spring Festival approaches, inventory depletion has slowed down, indicating that demand may not provide significant price support [1] - The inventory of domestic lithium salt plants in January was approximately 29,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons month-on-month, representing a 24.69% rise and an 8.01% increase year-on-year [1] - Downstream purchasing remains focused on low-priced inventory, with a recent increase in spot prices of lithium carbonate by 500 yuan/ton [1] Market Sentiment - The decline in precious metals last week has dampened market sentiment, leading to a correction in the main contract [1] - The overall supply and demand situation is weak, with inventory depletion slowing down, resulting in a rebound in the main contract today [1] - There are no upward drivers before the holiday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate [1]