王涵：日本大选后，日元日债稳住了吗

Group 1 - The global order is transitioning from unipolarity to multipolarity, fundamentally reshaping the pricing logic of global asset classes, with Japan's asset volatility reflecting this change [1] - Japan's capital market has experienced significant fluctuations since the beginning of the year, with both the yen and Japanese government bonds weakening, indicating a diminished safe-haven status [1] - The structural changes in the yen and Japanese bonds cannot be solely attributed to short-term economic fluctuations but should be understood within the broader narrative of global order evolution [1] Group 2 - Japan's geopolitical position has evolved through two phases: during the Cold War, it served as a critical support for the U.S. in Asia, and in the unipolar order post-Soviet Union, its role shifted to a financial one [6][7] - In the unipolar order, Japan enjoyed a dual benefit of a low-risk environment and stable capital returns, which underpinned the perception of the yen and Japanese bonds as safe-haven assets [7] - The transition to a multipolar order is altering this logic, as the U.S. strategic retrenchment reduces the demand for Japan as a leverage tool in capital expansion [12] Group 3 - The U.S. strategic retrenchment is pushing Japan to the geopolitical forefront, potentially destabilizing the regional security environment established since the signing of the Japan-China Peace and Friendship Treaty [15] - Although Japanese government interventions can temporarily stabilize market sentiment, the underlying fundamentals of the yen and Japanese bonds remain fragile due to the changing geopolitical role [15] - The trend of "de-securitization" of Japanese assets is a specific reflection of the multipolar narrative in the global financial landscape, with long-term implications for asset pricing logic [16]