A股最新研判，贝莱德中国发声！

Group 1 - BlackRock China predicts a "slow bull" market for Chinese assets in 2026, supported by fundamental and policy resonance, with conditions such as liquidity and profit improvement necessary for the bull market's continuation [1][2] - The global investment landscape in 2026 will be driven by the AI wave, with the U.S. economy showing resilience and a shift from consumption-led growth to a balance of AI investment and consumption [1][2] - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a significant global position, with strong export performance as a key growth driver and an improved environment for the Hong Kong stock market [2] Group 2 - Dynamic asset allocation is essential in the current high-volatility market, with active rebalancing strategies showing better long-term results than static approaches [2][3] - The 2025 performance of the CSI 300 index saw an increase of nearly 18%, driven by valuation expansion, indicating a sentiment-driven bull market [2][3] - Four conditions are necessary for the continuation of the bull market: ample liquidity, a transition to profit realization in the stock market, supportive policy measures, and a reduction in geopolitical risks [2] Group 3 - The negative correlation between traditional asset classes, particularly stocks and bonds, is weakening, necessitating a focus on expected returns and risk trade-offs [3] - ETFs are highlighted as a flexible investment tool suitable for capturing structural opportunities in the A-share market, reflecting a trend towards more sophisticated investment products [3][4] - The bond market is expected to exhibit "corridor-style" fluctuations, with limited volatility due to ongoing economic recovery and supportive monetary policy [3][5] Group 4 - Approximately 50 trillion yuan in deposits are set to mature this year, with expectations that some will flow into the capital markets, potentially influencing asset prices [4] - The Chinese bond ETF market, currently at 830 billion yuan, has significant growth potential compared to the total bond market size of nearly 200 trillion yuan, indicating room for innovation in bond strategies [5] Group 5 - Gold is expected to maintain its long-term hedging value due to factors such as global central bank purchases, potential dollar weakness, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties [5][6] - The investment landscape is shifting towards themes of financial stability, energy, technology, and national defense, with commodities closely linked to these themes [6] Group 6 - The trend in global pension investments is moving from defined benefit (DB) plans to defined contribution (DC) plans, reflecting the need for individuals to take on more retirement responsibility [7] - BlackRock aims to localize overseas strategies for the Chinese market, focusing on adapting investment approaches to align with local risk preferences and improving client investment behavior [7]