金属圈刷屏！小年镍价一枝独秀！涨势未完待续行情如何把握？

Group 1: Market Performance - Nickel prices surged on February 11, 2026, with the Longjiang spot price for 1 nickel reaching a range of 137,800-147,400 RMB/ton, averaging 142,600 RMB/ton, marking a daily increase of 2,950 RMB, which is a significant rise against the backdrop of a general market downturn [1] - The Shanghai nickel main contract also saw a rise of over 4%, with trading volume exceeding 430,000 lots, contrasting sharply with the overall decline in the metal sector [1] Group 2: Macro Analysis - The increase in nickel prices was driven by a combination of external and internal macroeconomic factors, including a slight decline in the US dollar index to 96.77, which reduced pricing pressure on commodities [1] - Concerns over the reduction of nickel mining quotas in Indonesia for 2026 and a shift in capital towards commodities ahead of the holiday season contributed to the upward momentum in nickel prices [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a clear divergence in nickel supply and demand; supply is constrained due to delays in the approval of new mining quotas in Indonesia and limited mining activity in the Philippines due to the rainy season [2] - Demand is being driven by a surge in exports from precursor companies in the new energy battery sector, while the stainless steel sector is experiencing a decline in production, leading to a mixed demand scenario [2] Group 4: Industry Leaders - Leading companies in the nickel sector are expected to report strong year-end performance, with core enterprises projected to see a more than 40% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 [2] - Nickel product sales are steadily increasing, and wet-process projects are consistently exceeding production targets, with expectations for a higher self-supply ratio of nickel rights in 2026 [2] Group 5: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for nickel prices suggests a continuation of a strong but volatile market, driven by supply constraints and capital inflows, although the current price increases may have already priced in some positive news [3] - As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises are gradually halting operations, leading to a tapering off of inventory demand, which may hinder the sustainability of the price surge [3]