【石油和化工行业景气指数】1月：季节需求拉动 景气指数上涨

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index rose to 105.36 in January 2026, driven by low oil prices and seasonal demand ahead of the Spring Festival [2][11] - The upstream oil and gas extraction sector faced ongoing pressure from falling prices, but seasonal demand led to inventory reduction, resulting in a slight recovery in the prosperity index [11] - The fuel processing industry saw a profit recovery, but inventory turnover slowed, causing a decline in its prosperity index [2][11] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector, along with rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing, experienced synchronized growth in production, profits, and inventory turnover due to low raw material costs and seasonal stocking [2][11] Index Data - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index increased by 4.45 points from December to January [8][16] - The oil and gas extraction sector index rose by 5.15 points, ending a four-month decline [11][16] - The fuel processing industry index decreased by 10.33 points, indicating a shift from overheating to normal conditions [14][16] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing index increased by 11.72 points, reflecting favorable conditions for production and sales [14][16] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing index rose by 9.92 points, indicating a strong production response to low costs and seasonal demand [16] Market Trends - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% in January 2026, indicating a slowdown in overall manufacturing, contrasting with the rising prosperity index in the petrochemical sector [3][17] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to short-term fluctuations in oil prices, with market sentiment oscillating between conflict risks and potential negotiations [4][18] - The oil price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with upward pressure and downward support due to seasonal demand weakness [4][18] Future Outlook - The petrochemical industry is anticipated to face challenges in February 2026 due to fluctuating oil prices and weakening post-holiday demand, leading to a potential seasonal decline in the prosperity index [9][19] - The demand side remains a critical variable, with the industry entering a traditional off-peak season after the Spring Festival [19]