大量定期存款到期，“固收+”再迎爆发式增长？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming maturity of a significant amount of residential time deposits in 2026, estimated at approximately 75 trillion yuan, is expected to drive funds towards "fixed income +" products, as traditional deposit rates decline below 1% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Context - In 2026, a large volume of three-year and five-year time deposits will be repriced, with an estimated 67 trillion yuan of one-year and above deposits maturing, which is higher than the market's estimate of around 50 trillion yuan [1]. - The growth in maturing deposits compared to 2025 is projected to be 12% for all deposits and 17% for one-year and above deposits, translating to an increase of 8 trillion yuan and 10 trillion yuan respectively [1]. - The current weak consumer sentiment and limited real estate demand suggest that a significant portion of these funds may flow into investment areas, indicating a market consensus on "deposit migration" [1]. Group 2: Product Development - The "fixed income +" products have evolved over more than a decade, entering a new stage of development characterized by improved asset allocation and value discovery capabilities [1]. - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to show marginal improvement, with a "recovery growth" pattern, leading to a low-risk appetite among bank depositors who prioritize capital safety and stable returns [1][2]. Group 3: Regulatory Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued a plan to support the development of various fund products, emphasizing the creation of low-volatility and asset allocation products to meet diverse investor needs [2]. Group 4: Fund Performance - As of the end of 2025, the total market size of "fixed income +" funds reached a historical high of 2.735 trillion yuan, reflecting a growing acceptance among investors [3]. - Several "fixed income +" products from Bosera Fund have shown strong performance, with specific funds achieving notable net value growth rates significantly above their respective benchmarks [8][9].