Crude Oil Prices Jump as US Advises Ships to Avoid Iran

Group 1: Oil Price Movements - March WTI crude oil closed up +0.81 (+1.27%), and March RBOB gasoline closed up +0.0323 (+1.65%) on Monday, with gasoline reaching a 2.5-month high [1] - The decline in the dollar index to a 1-month low contributed to the bullish sentiment in energy prices, particularly crude oil [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Concerns over escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East have added a risk premium to crude oil prices, particularly following a US maritime advisory for American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fears of potential military action by the US against Iran could disrupt key shipping lanes and impact Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd), as Iran is OPEC's fourth-largest producer [2] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, which rose to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, is contributing to global oil supply and is bearish for prices [3] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with no resolution in sight, is expected to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, which supports oil prices [4] Group 4: Production and Consumption Estimates - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million bpd from 3.815 million bpd [5] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd from 13.53 million bpd, while also cutting its energy consumption estimate to 95.37 quadrillion British thermal units (btu) from 95.68 [5]