商超业绩出现两极分化：2025-2026年，到底谁在扩张，谁在收缩？

Core Insights - The Chinese retail industry is experiencing a significant "differentiation" trend between 2025 and 2026, with aggressive expansion from membership stores and discount supermarkets, while traditional hypermarkets are closing stores and facing financial difficulties [1] Group 1: Expansion - Membership stores, represented by Sam's Club and Costco, are leading the expansion with clear and high certainty in their growth strategies. Sam's Club plans to open 13 new stores in 2026, aiming for a total of 76 stores by the end of the year, following a record 10 new openings in 2025 and a sales figure exceeding 140 billion yuan, a 40% year-on-year increase [2][3] - Hard discount supermarkets, such as ALDI, are also expanding rapidly, with ALDI planning to exceed 100 stores in China by the end of Q1 2026, having opened 88 stores by the end of 2025 [4][5] - Internet platforms like Hema, JD Fresh, and Meituan are expanding through multi-format strategies. Hema's overall GMV surpassed 75 billion yuan in 2025, with plans to open over 300 new stores by 2026 [8][9] Group 2: Contraction - Traditional hypermarkets are continuing to close stores, with at least 720 supermarkets shutting down in the first half of 2025. Major players like Yonghui Supermarket closed 381 stores that did not align with their strategic positioning [11][12] - Regional supermarkets are adopting a more conservative approach, focusing on store optimization and brand development rather than aggressive expansion. For instance, the sales of Pinduoduo increased significantly, but many other regional players are prioritizing store closures to enhance profitability [12][13] - The overall trend in the retail sector indicates a "shrinking" of store numbers, with a net decrease of 287 stores in 2025, highlighting a structural improvement rather than mere expansion [15][16] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The retail industry is expected to face a prolonged period of differentiation, with a focus on quality and efficiency rather than just speed and scale. The emphasis will be on companies that can adapt to market changes and consumer needs [1][18] - The "Matthew Effect" is anticipated to intensify, leading to greater performance disparities among companies, with only those that understand the market and consumer behavior likely to thrive [18]