地缘风险与政策预期交织 金银陷“大扫荡”式宽幅震荡

Group 1 - Gold prices are supported by global reserve demand and geopolitical risks, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut putting downward pressure on the dollar, creating a dual upward momentum [1] - Industrial demand remains robust, and central bank gold purchases continue, but high interest rates suppress speculation, leading to price fluctuations driven by macro policies and market sentiment [1] - The expansion of photovoltaic and electronic demand provides long-term support, while constraints at the mining level and weak elasticity of recycled silver exacerbate volatility [1] Group 2 - Recent U.S. retail sales data, known as "terrifying data," underperformed expectations but had limited impact on the market; focus is now on the non-farm payroll report, which is unlikely to change market trends significantly [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, is escalating, with potential implications for gold and oil prices [2] - Gold and silver are currently in a "fifth phase" of long-term consolidation, characterized by a lack of sustained price movements, leading to volatile trading conditions [2] Group 3 - For spot gold, key resistance is identified in the $5090-$5100 range, with a short-term adjustment expected before any upward breakout; the support zone is between $4980-$5000 [3] - The current market is in a sweeping phase, making it difficult to establish a one-sided trend; resistance levels to watch include $5140-$5150 and $5220-$5240, while support levels are at $4900 and $4820-$4830 [3] Group 4 - For spot silver, the market is in a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with indications of a potential shift from bullish to bearish; the current outlook suggests a lengthy sweeping phase with multiple trading opportunities [4] - Key resistance levels for silver are at $85-$86, $92-$93, and the $100 mark, while support levels are at $78-$79 and $75-$76, with critical support at $70-$71 and $64-$65 [4]