Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a rebound of over 14% after hitting a low of $60,130, briefly surpassing $72,000, indicating initial confirmation of bottom support, yet top traders remain cautious due to macro uncertainties [1][4] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trading Behavior - Top traders exhibit strong risk-averse sentiment, showing restraint in re-establishing high-leverage long positions after a significant 52% drop from the historical high in October 2025 [1][4] - The leverage market's activity has significantly decreased, with Binance's Bitcoin long/short ratio dropping from 1.93 to 1.20, the lowest in 30 days, while OKX's top traders' ratio fell from 4.3 to 1.7 [1][4] - This notable adjustment in positions is closely linked to a $1 billion large-scale liquidation in the bullish futures market, reflecting a "wait-and-see" period rather than a shift to short positions [1][4] Group 2: Fund Flows and ETF Performance - The performance of spot ETFs has provided a boost to the market, with U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs reversing a three-day net outflow trend, successfully attracting a net inflow of $516 million [2][5] - This reversal in fund flow indicates that long-term "whale" investors maintain confidence in the underlying value of crypto assets despite market volatility [2][5] - Previous selling pressure was largely attributed to disruptions in cross-asset margin chains, such as the collapse of low-yield yen carry trades, which also affected precious metals markets [2][5] Group 3: Derivatives Market and Investor Sentiment - The derivatives market shows a surge in bearish hedging sentiment, with the put/call ratio on Deribit reaching an extreme level of 3.1, indicating deep concerns about further market corrections [2][5] - Although the demand for put options has decreased to 1.7, the overall market still lacks strong bullish momentum support, reflecting a wait for confirmation of released clearing risks from market makers and trading platforms [2][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The core logic of Bitcoin as an anti-censorship and scarce asset remains unchanged despite short-term volatility, with the current low-leverage position structure potentially creating a healthier base for future sustainable rebounds [3][6] - In the context of the S&P 500 maintaining high levels and traditional safe-haven assets like gold performing well, Bitcoin's pricing center is expected to gradually rise after sufficient turnover [3][6] - Investors are advised to remain calm and focus on the sustainability of ETF inflows rather than chasing short-term technical rebounds until the market fully clarifies the aftermath of the clearing storm [3][6]
ZFX山海证券:BTC见底回升 情绪仍偏谨慎
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-11 09:52