NCE平台:供需缺口持续 白银八十美元上方筑基

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently consolidating around the high price of $80 per ounce, indicating a potential buildup of momentum for the next trend rather than the end of the upward movement [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market is expected to face a supply gap of approximately 67 million ounces by 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of supply deficit [1][4]. - Despite a projected 1.5% increase in total global supply this year, reaching a ten-year high of 1.05 billion ounces, it will not fully meet the rising investment and industrial demand [1][4]. - The current tightness in the London market and investor concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are significant factors contributing to an anticipated 11% price increase for silver by 2026 [4]. Demand Trends - Investment sentiment is returning, with global ETP holdings reaching approximately 1.31 billion ounces and physical investment demand expected to surge by 20% year-on-year, hitting a three-year high [2][4]. - Although traditional photovoltaic industries are experiencing a slight decline in silver usage due to substitution effects, the explosion of artificial intelligence is driving new industrial growth, effectively offsetting weaknesses in traditional sectors [2][4]. - Jewelry and consumer demand are showing price sensitivity in a high-price environment, with jewelry demand projected to drop to its lowest level since 2020, a typical occurrence during mid-bull markets [2][4]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term value of silver is rooted in its inability to quickly bridge the supply gap through capacity expansion [5]. - In the context of macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical fluctuations, silver is recognized as a highly elastic hedge asset, with the $80 per ounce consolidation zone serving as a critical support level for future bullish momentum [5]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor an upcoming comprehensive survey report in April for the latest benchmark data on global resource extraction costs and recycling supply [5].