Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-11 10:16Core Viewpoint - The CPO (Optical Module) concept has experienced a significant decline, particularly with leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, which saw drops of 5.46% and 4.28% respectively, resulting in a combined market value loss of nearly 50 billion [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the decline in the CPO concept was a widely circulated claim on social media that order paths for optical module companies had changed, allowing CSPs to bypass companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and place orders directly with upstream laser equipment companies like Lumentum, thereby compressing the gross margins of Chinese module manufacturers [1][8] - Following the rumors, Zhongji Xuchuang issued a statement denying the existence of such order bypassing scenarios [8] Group 2: Industry Trends - The CPO sector is no longer the main focus of the market or the AI computing industry in 2023, as the explosive growth seen in previous years has subsided [3][10] - The primary driver for the CPO industry's past success was the rapid growth of AI computing infrastructure in the U.S., where Chinese optical module companies became key players in the supply chain [3][10] - Current market sentiment indicates a shift in focus from North American AI computing prospects, which are now viewed with skepticism, to domestic developments in AI computing, particularly with the anticipated entry of NVIDIA's H200 and the ramp-up of domestic AI chips [3][10] Group 3: Future Projections - Morgan Stanley has projected a staggering increase in China's AI inference token consumption, estimating it will grow from approximately 10 trillion in 2025 to about 3,900 trillion by 2030, representing a growth of around 370 times with a compound annual growth rate of 330% [4][11] - With strong policy support, domestic AI computing infrastructure is expected to accelerate, leading to increased orders and performance for companies focused on the domestic market [6][13] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The CPO industry faces challenges due to its previous high performance and large market capitalization, which makes it difficult for domestic growth to significantly impact their valuations [7][13] - The focus for investment in the AI hardware sector is shifting towards areas beyond CPO, such as the domestic chip supply chain, advanced packaging technologies, and cooling solutions, which are essential for managing the higher power consumption of domestic chips compared to NVIDIA's [7][13]