春节后复合肥价格怎么走？关注这两点

Group 1 - In 2025, the compound fertilizer market is expected to see an increase in production capacity, leading to supply exceeding market demand significantly. Domestic demand is constrained by grain prices and terminal profits, resulting in uncertain release times and volumes, prompting low inventory strategies across production and distribution channels [1][11] - The price of 45% (15-15-15) sulfur-based compound fertilizer is projected to fluctuate, with the average price before and after the Spring Festival showing minor changes. For instance, the price in 2025 is expected to be 2705 yuan per ton before the festival and 2707 yuan after, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% [3][14] - The compound fertilizer market has maintained high prices since the beginning of 2026, with the average price at 3175 yuan per ton, which is a 16.39% increase compared to the previous year [4][13] Group 2 - The supply side indicates that the production capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizers is expected to rise in January, but may decline in February as the Spring Festival approaches. The peak demand for spring fertilizers occurs from February to April, necessitating careful logistics and inventory management [6][17] - Inventory levels for compound fertilizers are projected to increase gradually, reaching 78.71 million tons before the Spring Festival, which is a 12.12% increase from the beginning of the year. This increase is attributed to a balance between production and sales, with limited inventory growth in January [6][17] - Profit margins for compound fertilizers are expected to remain low due to fluctuating raw material costs. In January and February 2026, profits for sulfur-based fertilizers may rise due to higher prices, but actual profits could be lower due to the execution of previous low-price orders [9][20] Group 3 - After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand for compound fertilizers are anticipated to improve, with a focus on the actual initiation of spring demand. Favorable weather conditions could lead to increased agricultural demand and higher production capacity utilization [10][21] - Cost factors to monitor post-festival include changes in sulfur prices, which could impact the prices of phosphate and sulfuric acid, subsequently affecting compound fertilizer costs. The expected price range for 45% (15-15-15) sulfur-based compound fertilizer post-festival is between 3150 and 3500 yuan [10][21]