博时基金肖瑞瑾：半导体表现吸睛，把握中国半导体行业潜在投资机遇

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is currently experiencing strong performance driven by three main factors, indicating a "multi-motive resonance" characteristic [2][8]. Group 1: Driving Factors - The demand for global AI computing power centers is continuously growing, with domestic capital expenditure on computing power expected to significantly increase in 2026 compared to 2025, directly boosting high-demand products like GPU and storage chips [2][8]. - The acceleration of overseas wafer foundry capacity construction and advancements in domestic chip innovation are jointly pushing major wafer manufacturers to increase capital expenditure plans, benefiting semiconductor equipment and materials [2][8]. - The traditional semiconductor industry is transitioning from a three-year destocking cycle to a replenishment cycle starting in 2025, coupled with a significant rise in upstream precious metal prices, which is driving up chip prices and accelerating downstream customer replenishment demand [2][8]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The current industry prosperity is at the mid-point of an innovation cycle and the early stage of a inventory cycle, with AI capital expenditure expected to remain high through 2026 [3][9]. - Traditional non-AI demand in consumer, industrial control, automotive, and communication markets is being increasingly squeezed by emerging AI demand, leading to a focus on AI-related capital expenditure and a lack of attention to traditional demand [3][9]. - The core focus signal is the inventory turnover days of downstream enterprises, which are still at historically low levels and have not completed safe inventory [4][10]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The storage chip and storage wafer factory expansion will benefit from the current storage prosperity cycle, with domestic semiconductor manufacturing leaders gaining from advancements in independent innovation and expansion of advanced process capacity [4][10]. - Traditional chip design companies will benefit from the price elasticity of downstream replenishment, allowing them to pass on increased costs from rising precious metal prices to downstream customers, thus expanding profit margins [4][10]. - The company maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese semiconductor industry, anticipating significant innovation results from ongoing investments in key processes, equipment, and materials, which will enhance the overall strength of the semiconductor industry chain and create numerous investment opportunities [5][11][12].