70%经济学家联手预警：沃什领导的美联储恐彻底“失控”！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate until the end of Powell's term in May, but a rate cut is anticipated in June, raising concerns about the potential for overly loose policies under Kevin Warsh's leadership [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Over 70% of economists are worried that the independence of the Federal Reserve will be significantly compromised after Powell's departure [1][4]. - Approximately 75 out of 101 economists predict that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the second consecutive meeting next month, an increase from 58% in the previous month [5][6]. - Nearly 60% of economists believe that interest rates will drop to the range of 3.25%-3.50% by the end of the next quarter, with rate cuts most likely occurring in June [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Predictions - The median forecast indicates that the U.S. economic growth rate for this year is expected to be between 2% and 2.4%, higher than the Fed's estimate of 1.8% for non-inflationary growth [2][5]. - Predictions show that the annualized growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 will slow to 2.9%, down from 4.4% in the third quarter [2][5]. - The average inflation level for this year is expected to be significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][5]. Group 3: Kevin Warsh's Policy Implications - Almost all economists (49 out of 53) believe that Warsh is more likely to implement overly loose rather than tight policies [3][7]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether Warsh will push for one or two rate cuts based on economic developments or if he will advocate for more substantial cuts [3][7]. - Despite some predictions indicating that the unemployment rate will stabilize around 4.5%, this does not support the necessity for multiple rate cuts [8].