Policy shifts and sales fluctuations continue to affect China market

Core Insights - China's auto market experienced a significant slowdown in December, attributed to various factors including exhausted subsidy budgets and consumer hesitancy, leading to a "rapid freeze" in demand [1][4] - The year-end sales surge, typically seen in December, did not occur as many consumers made purchases earlier during the "Golden September and Silver October" sales season [1] - The transition of NEV purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction starting in 2026 has caused consumers to delay purchases, widening the year-end demand gap [1] Production and Sales Data - In December, China's light vehicle (LV) production totaled 3.1 million units, a decline of 3.5% year-on-year (YoY), with passenger vehicle (PV) output falling by 4.1% YoY to 2.9 million units [2] - Domestic OEMs saw their first output decline, down 0.4% YoY to 2.3 million units, while joint venture OEMs faced an 11.1% YoY drop [2] - Exports showed strong growth, with 684,000 LVs shipped, marking a 47.5% YoY increase, primarily driven by PVs [2] December Sales Performance - December LV sales in China fell by 16% YoY to approximately 2.5 million units, with PVs declining by 17% YoY to 2.2 million units [3] - Despite the December downturn, full-year 2025 LV sales reached 26.9 million units, up 6% YoY, with both PVs and LCVs growing by 6% YoY [3] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The downturn in December reflects fading policy support, consumer hesitancy, and ongoing industry transformation, indicating a shift from rapid growth to deeper market adjustments [4] - In 2026, the auto market is expected to transition from "scale competition" to "capability competition," with policy adjustments aimed at more targeted support for consumers and automakers [6] - The domestic market is projected to see slight growth or remain flat in 2026, while exports are expected to maintain double-digit expansion, with NEVs and lower-tier markets as key growth drivers [6] Industry Developments - In 2025, China's automotive industry made significant progress in scale, structural optimization, and technological innovation, with NEV sales reaching over 13 million units, a 20% YoY increase [5] - Regulatory measures were introduced to curb price wars and ensure healthy competition, alongside improvements in safety and regulatory frameworks [5]