McDonald's vs. Yum! Brands: Which Wins the Battle for India as US Growth Slows?

Core Insights - McDonald's and Yum! Brands are facing significant challenges in the U.S. market, with both companies experiencing double-digit traffic declines among lower-income consumers in Q3 2025. This trend has persisted for nearly two years, driven by rising labor costs, consumer resistance to pricing, market saturation, and competition in value menus [1] - India presents a substantial growth opportunity for both companies, with a population of 1.4 billion, a median age of 29, and a rapidly expanding middle class projected to reach 600 million by 2030. The underpenetration of Western QSR brands in India further enhances this potential [1] Company Strategies and Market Position - Yum! Brands has a structural advantage in India, with KFC being the largest Western QSR by store count, operating over 600 locations. The brand's chicken-forward menu requires minimal cultural adaptation, unlike McDonald's, which has pivoted to vegetarian offerings to accommodate local dietary preferences [1] - McDonald's operates over 500 locations in India, split between two franchise partners, leading to a fragmented operational structure. This contrasts with Yum's unified partnership with Devyani International, which is India's largest QSR franchisee [1] - Yum! Brands' multi-brand portfolio, including Taco Bell and Pizza Hut, allows for risk diversification and has shown stronger performance in emerging markets compared to McDonald's [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, McDonald's U.S. comparable sales grew by only 2.4%, while Yum! Brands reported a 7% increase in same-store sales for Taco Bell and a 2% increase for KFC. Yum's digital sales reached a record $10 billion, indicating strong platform performance [1] - Yum! Brands derives a higher percentage of revenue from emerging markets, with India being a top-five global market for KFC. This positions Yum favorably for growth in India, while McDonald's faces challenges in the U.S. market [1] - Over the past year, Yum! Brands' stock return was 7.22%, outperforming McDonald's return of 5.69%, reflecting the differing market dynamics and growth strategies of the two companies [1]