Ryder first look: steady as she goes, no big swings

Core Insights - Ryder's fourth quarter performance showed stability with no significant changes in revenue or profitability compared to the previous year [1] - The used tractor sales average price increased by 1% year-on-year, indicating a strengthening freight market [1] Segment Revenue Summary - Fleet Management Solutions (FMS) experienced a 1% decline in total revenue, reflecting a gradual decrease in its revenue share [2] - Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) reported a 3% increase in revenue, highlighting growth in Ryder's contract logistics segment [2] - Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS) saw an 8% decline in revenue, indicating vulnerability to a weak trucking market [2] Earnings Before Tax (EBT) Analysis - FMS reported a 10% decline in EBT, attributed to overall used vehicle sales performance, with comparable sales prices for non-tractor vehicles down 9% [3] - SCS experienced an 8% decrease in EBT, with revenue growth offset by automotive results [3] - DTS achieved a 19% increase in profitability despite revenue decline, due to lower bad debt and benefits from acquisition synergies [3] Full Year Performance and Forecast - For the full year, Ryder reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $12.92, an 8% increase from the previous year [4] - The company forecasts non-GAAP earnings for the next year to be between $13.45 and $14.45, with a projected 3% rise in operating revenue primarily from SCS [4] Management Commentary - The outgoing CEO noted that the fourth quarter results marked the fifth consecutive quarter of earnings-per-share growth, aligning with expectations [5] - SCS and DTS maintained high single-digit pre-tax earnings as a percentage of operating revenue, while FMS benefited from lease pricing and maintenance cost savings [5] Market Reaction - Initial stock market reactions to the earnings report were negative, with Ryder's stock down approximately 3.4% shortly after the earnings release [6] - Despite this, Ryder's stock has increased by about 34.7% over the past 12 months, benefiting from a strong logistics equity market [6]