CertiK发布Skynet预测市场报告：交易额激增400%，繁荣背后的安全与监管风险

Core Insights - The report by CertiK highlights the significant growth of the global prediction market, with trading volume increasing from approximately $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025, marking a fourfold increase [1] - Despite this rapid growth, the industry faces substantial challenges in infrastructure security, compliance consistency, and long-term sustainability [1] Market Landscape - The prediction market is currently dominated by three platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion, which together account for over 95% of global trading volume [2] - Kalshi maintains a strong position in the U.S. market through compliance with regulations and integration with Robinhood, reaching 24 million retail investors [2] - Polymarket, despite facing geographical restrictions in the U.S., remains a preferred choice for crypto-native users and is frequently cited by mainstream media [2] - Opinion is the fastest-growing platform, capturing approximately 30% market share in a short period, leveraging incentives from the BNB chain ecosystem [2] - There is a notable "structural rotation" in liquidity, with the BNB chain's activity surpassing traditional leaders like Polygon at the beginning of 2026 [2] Top 10 Prediction Market Rankings - The rankings provided by CertiK's Skynet Top Board focus on the overall risk structure and long-term stability of projects rather than just market capitalization or trading volume [3] Security Risks - The rapid growth of the prediction market has amplified security risks, including: - Fragmented regulatory landscape leading to compliance challenges across different jurisdictions [4] - High estimates of up to 60% of false trading volumes during peak incentive periods, distorting liquidity metrics [4] - Vulnerabilities in Web2 access layers, as demonstrated by a December 2025 incident involving Polymarket's identity verification provider [4] - Retained administrative privileges on decentralized platforms, which pose risks to user funds and market fairness [4] Regulatory Developments - Hong Kong, Dubai, and Singapore are actively working to establish clear regulatory frameworks for prediction markets, with Hong Kong expected to clarify rules soon [5] Future Outlook - For prediction market platforms to survive long-term, they must maintain liquidity across multiple jurisdictions, build secure infrastructure to attract institutional funds, and develop sustainable business models independent of incentive-driven trading volumes [6] - The industry's security challenges have evolved from solely smart contract risks to encompass oracle mechanisms, administrative privilege management, and systemic issues arising from mixed Web2 and Web3 architectures [6] Security Solutions - CertiK has introduced targeted solutions to address these risks, including smart contract audits, real-time monitoring, oracle security reviews, and Web2.5 penetration testing [7] - The report emphasizes that enhanced security capabilities are becoming essential for prediction market platforms to gain long-term trust and ensure sustainable development [7]