美国1月非农创出逾一年最大增数 年度基准下修也基本符合初估

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs in January, marking the highest increase in over a year, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, indicating stability in the labor market at the beginning of 2026 [1][3] - The previous year's data was revised significantly, showing an average monthly job addition of only 15,000, down from the initially reported 49,000 [1][3] - Economists generally expect the labor market to remain weak in 2026, but some employers may increase hiring due to clearer impacts of President Trump's economic policies and lower borrowing costs [1][3] Labor Market Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the labor market is gradually stabilizing after a year of rising unemployment and sharp declines in hiring [1][3] - The adjusted data indicates that nearly 900,000 jobs were reduced from the initially reported figures for the 12 months ending March 2025, aligning with preliminary forecasts [2][4] Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - There are differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding the labor market's condition, which contributes to uncertainty about the interest rate path for the year [1][3] - Following the data release, U.S. stock index futures and Treasury yields rose, with traders significantly lowering expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in June, now anticipating the first cut in July [1][3] Employment Data Methodology - The annual non-farm report allows the Bureau of Labor Statistics to anchor employment numbers to more accurate but less timely "Employment and Wage Quarterly Census" data, which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records [4]