Biotech Beat Nvidia in 2025. Can It Do It Again?

Industry Overview - The biotech industry had a strong performance in 2025, outperforming NVIDIA, with continued enthusiasm into 2026 [5] - There are concerns regarding the FDA's regulatory environment, described as chaotic, which may impact drug approvals [5][9] FDA Regulatory Environment - Richard Pasdur, a former senior FDA executive, expressed concerns about the breach of the firewall between political appointees and drug reviewers, indicating potential risks for the pharma industry [7] - The FDA's current commissioner, Marty Makary, aims to speed up drug approvals, but there are conflicting signals regarding the actual operating reality [9] Company Earnings Predictions Eli Lilly (Ticker: LLY) - Expected earnings per share range from $6.99 to $7.86, with a consensus estimate of $7.48 and revenue of $17.85 billion, indicating over 30% year-over-year earnings growth [15] - Analysts predict a likely earnings beat due to a history of exceeding expectations [15][16] Novo Nordisk (Ticker: NVO) - Earnings per share expectations are between $0.89 and $0.90, with revenue projected at $11.96 billion, showing a flat to slightly down trend [17] - Analysts express a higher possibility of a miss compared to Eli Lilly, citing recent struggles and a new CEO's uncertain direction [17][19] Twist Bioscience (Ticker: TWST) - Reported revenue of $104 million for Q1 2026, consistent with preliminary results, though still unprofitable [20] - The company has shown consistent revenue growth despite industry challenges, reducing cash burn and moving towards profitability [20]