Roblox Sees Huge Revenue and Bookings Growth, But This Metric Remains a Red Flag

Core Insights - Roblox reported strong fourth-quarter results despite a stock decline of over 25% prior to earnings, with a notable negative metric still affecting the company [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Roblox's bookings surged 63% year over year in Q4 to $2.22 billion, indicating strong user spending on the platform [3] - Overall revenue jumped 43% year over year to $1.42 billion, although adjusted EBITDA fell significantly from $65.6 million to $2.7 million [5] - The company recorded $298.4 million in stock-based compensation expenses for the quarter, raising concerns about its financial metrics [5] Group 2: User Engagement - Daily active users (DAUs) increased by 69% to 144 million, while monthly unique payers (MUPs) rose 94% to 36.7 million, with significant growth driven by international markets [4] - U.S. and Canadian DAUs grew by 32%, and MUPs increased by 34%, reflecting a solid user base expansion [4] Group 3: Future Guidance - Roblox forecasts revenue growth of 23% to 29%, projecting a range of $6.02 billion to $6.29 billion, and bookings to rise by 22% to 26%, targeting $8.28 billion to $8.55 billion [6] - For the first quarter, the company anticipates bookings between $1.69 billion and $1.74 billion, representing growth of 40% to 44%, with revenue expected to grow by 32% to 37% [7]