特雷克斯2025财年四季度业绩预期向好，债务优化与估值优势受关注

Core Viewpoint - Terex (TEX.N) shows positive performance expectations for Q4 FY2025, with an optimized financial structure and relative valuation advantages, but faces challenges from short-term performance pressure and industry competition [1] Performance and Operating Conditions - Terex is expected to report Q4 FY2025 revenue of $1.298 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.62%, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at $1.00, indicating a return to profitability [2] Institutional Perspectives - Citigroup maintains a "Hold" rating, raising the target price from $52 to $62. JPMorgan raised its target price to $50 on June 10, 2025, reflecting market recognition of cost control and cash flow improvements [3] Financial Status - Debt-to-equity ratio improved from 135.7% to 32.09% over the past five years, significantly lower than the industry average of 194.31%, enhancing debt repayment capability [4] - Operating cash flow reached $154 million in Q3 2025, with free cash flow at $130 million, supporting dividend payments of $0.17 per share and a buyback plan of $55 million in Q2 2025 [4] - Gross margin increased to 20.33% in Q3 2025, up from 19.64% in the previous quarter, primarily due to product mix optimization [4] Industry Position - Terex ranks 16th in the global construction machinery top 50 for 2025, with sales revenue of $5.1 billion and a market share of 2.1% [5] - Current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.38 and price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.67 are both below the industry weighted averages of 18.03 and 2.86, indicating relative undervaluation [5] Industry and Risk Analysis - Short-term performance pressure is evident, with Q3 2025 revenue declining by 6.05% year-on-year and EPS down by 16.57%, impacted by global supply chain and demand fluctuations [6] - Increased competition exists with international giants like Caterpillar and Komatsu, highlighting the need to monitor progress in overseas market expansion [6]