Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: What to Know Ahead of Q4 Release

Core Viewpoint - Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending December 2025, with the consensus outlook indicating a significant factor that could influence its stock price in the near term [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show earnings of $0.99 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 4.8%, while revenues are projected to reach $948.89 million, representing a 3% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.88% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Potential - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates a positive Earnings ESP of +0.10% for Cheesecake Factory, suggesting that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, when combined with the positive Earnings ESP, suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory exceeded the expected earnings of $0.60 per share by delivering $0.68, resulting in a surprise of +13.33% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14]. Industry Context - In comparison, Wendy's (WEN), another player in the restaurant industry, is expected to report earnings of $0.14 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year decline of 44%, with revenues projected at $541.48 million, down 5.7% from the previous year [18]. - Wendy's has an Earnings ESP of -0.63% and a Zacks Rank of 4, making it challenging to predict a beat on the consensus EPS estimate [19].