Should You Buy, Sell or Hold CCJ Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?

Core Viewpoint - Cameco Corporation (CCJ) is expected to report a 7.7% year-over-year increase in fourth-quarter earnings per share, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate set at 28 cents [1][6]. Financial Performance - The earnings surprise history shows that Cameco has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and surpassed it twice over the last four quarters, with an average negative earnings surprise of 14.80% [3]. - The Earnings ESP for Cameco is +2.35%, indicating a potential earnings beat, supported by a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5]. Production and Deliveries - Cameco targets uranium deliveries of 32-34 million pounds for 2025, slightly down from 33.6 million pounds delivered in 2024 [10]. - The company has revised its production outlook from the McArthur River mine to 9.8-10.5 million pounds for 2025 due to development delays, while maintaining a target of 9.8 million pounds from the Cigar Lake mine [8][10]. - Through the first nine months of 2025, Cameco produced 15 million pounds and delivered 21.8 million pounds, with expectations to meet delivery targets in Q4 2025 [11]. Market Conditions - Uranium prices averaged approximately $79.12 per pound in Q4 2025, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase, which is expected to support revenue growth despite lower sales volumes compared to the previous year [13]. - The average realized price of uranium was $58.45 per pound (CAD80.90 per pound) [12]. Cost Management and Financial Health - The company has been reducing debt levels, which is likely to lower interest expenses and boost earnings [15]. - Cameco has raised its share of adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse to $525-$580 million for 2025, contributing positively to its fourth-quarter results [16]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Cameco shares have appreciated 27.6% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average of 4.2% [17]. - The stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 20.48, which is higher than the industry average of 1.45 but lower than peers Energy Fuels and Uranium Energy [19][20]. Investment Thesis - The nuclear power sector is experiencing growth driven by energy security and low-carbon energy demand, positioning Cameco favorably due to its high-quality asset base and strategic involvement in the nuclear fuel supply chain [21]. - The company is expected to meet its 2025 production and delivery targets, with a reasonable probability of earnings growth in Q4 [24].