光伏行业“反内卷”成效进一步显现

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a clear trend of cost differentiation driven by fluctuations in silver prices and technological advancements, leading to a reduction in industry competition [1][8]. Cost Pressure - The global demand for silver is expected to remain strong through 2026, supported by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in U.S. policies, despite a projected 17% reduction in global jewelry and silverware demand due to high prices [2]. - The silver price has increased by 11% this year, following its historic rise above $100 per ounce in January [2]. - The global silver market is projected to face a supply shortage of approximately 67 million ounces by 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficit [2]. - The photovoltaic sector, as a major consumer of silver, will continue to face cost pressures due to high silver prices, prompting companies to accelerate the development of silver paste alternatives [2][3]. Technological Breakthroughs - Leading companies in the photovoltaic industry are making significant progress in developing silver paste alternatives, with some planning large-scale production of low-cost metal alternatives [4]. - Longi Green Energy has announced plans to start large-scale production of a copper paste solution in Q2 of this year, which could reduce component costs by approximately 0.02 yuan per watt [4]. - Other major players, including Aiko Solar and JinkoSolar, are also actively pursuing silver paste replacement technologies, with JinkoSolar collaborating with Wuxi Dike Electronic Materials to innovate in low-silver metallization techniques [4][5]. Industry Restructuring - The photovoltaic industry is expected to shift towards high-efficiency and reliable components, with companies possessing technological advantages able to command price premiums [6]. - The new installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in China is projected to reach between 180 GW and 240 GW in 2026, marking a significant turning point after years of growth [6]. - The transition towards high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector will be driven by upgraded end-user demand, which will compel manufacturers to enhance technology and market mechanisms [8].