IREN Aims for $3.4B AI Cloud ARR by 2026: Can it Hit the Target?

Core Insights - IREN Limited (IREN) aims to achieve $3.4 billion in annualized run-rate revenues (ARR) by the end of 2026, primarily driven by its AI cloud business [1][10] Financial Performance - In Q2 of fiscal 2026, IREN reported approximately $2.3 billion of ARR under contract, including a significant agreement with Microsoft and $0.4-$0.5 billion from the Prince George site [1][10] - IREN secured $3.6 billion in GPU financing and received $1.9 billion in customer prepayments from Microsoft, covering about 95% of the GPU-related capital spending associated with the Microsoft contract [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IREN's fiscal 2026 revenues is $1.01 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 98.6%, while the estimate for fiscal 2027 revenues is $2.76 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 172.6% [4] Power and Infrastructure - IREN has secured over 4.5 gigawatts (GW) of power, which is crucial in the current data center market, and only about 10% of this power will be used to reach the $3.4 billion ARR target by the end of 2026 [3] - The company plans to deploy around 140,000 GPUs by the end of 2026, supported by its available power capacity [3] Competitive Landscape - IREN faces significant competition from Applied Digital (APLD) and TeraWulf (WULF) in the AI infrastructure sector [5] - Applied Digital is constructing Delta Forge 1, an AI data center campus with an initial capacity of 430 megawatts (MW) [6] - TeraWulf has expanded its portfolio by acquiring two sites, adding approximately 1.5 GW of power capacity, increasing its total to about 2.8 GW [7] Stock Performance - IREN's shares have increased by 142.5% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Financial Miscellaneous Services industry's decline of 23.4% [8]